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Theses and Dissertations

1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items

2013-09

The rise of robots and the implications for military organizations

Lim, Zhifeng

Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School

http://hdl.handle.net/10945/37662

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POSTGRADUATE

SCHOOL

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THESIS

THE RISE OF ROBOTS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS

by

Zhifeng Lim September 2013

Thesis Advisor: Gary O. Langford

Co-Advisor: Douglas H. Nelson

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6. AUTHOR(S) Zhifeng Lim _

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13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words)

This thesis explores the reasons for the inevitability of the extensive use of robots in military organizations, projects the adoption timeframe for robots in military organizations, proposes how robots might evolve, assesses the impact of robots on military organizations and suggests the way forward for military organizations to facilitate the adoption of robots.

Macro environmental trends suggest that the use of robots is the way forward for military organizations.

The thesis projects that the adoption rate of robots will pick up from this point forward and will reach market saturation in a matter of decades. The use of robots has physical, functional, and behavioral implications for military organizations, and their increasing numbers will affect how militaries are organized and alter the existing organizational processes in the long term. Military organizations will benefit from a better understanding of the impact of robots and the resulting challenges. Taking the necessary steps to mitigate the challenges and facilitate the evolutionary transition for the military organizations will allow these organizations to reap the benefits of robots and to operate effectively in the changing macro environment.

14. SUBJECT TERMS Robots, Drones, Bots, Unmanned Systems, Unmanned Aerial 15. NUMBER OF

Vehicle, Unmanned Ground Vehicle, Unmanned Surface Vehicle, Unmanned Underwater PAGES Vehicle, Exoskeleton, Free Robots, Tethered Robots, Autonomous, Artificial Intelligence 85

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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

THE RISE OF ROBOTS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR MILITARY

ORGANIZATIONS

Zhifeng Lim

Captain, Singapore Armed Forces M.Eng., Imperial College London, 2008

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

from the

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2013

Author: Zhifeng Lim

Approved by: Gary O. Langford

Thesis Advisor

Douglas H. Nelson Thesis Co-Advisor

Clifford Whitcomb

Chair, Department of Systems Engineering

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IV

ABSTRACT

This thesis explores the reasons for the inevitability of the extensive use of robots in military organizations, projects the adoption timeframe for robots in military organizations, proposes how robots might evolve, assesses the impact of robots on military organizations and suggests the way forward for military organizations to facilitate the adoption of robots.

Macro environmental trends suggest that the use of robots is the way forward for military organizations. The thesis projects that the adoption rate of robots will pick up from this point forward and will reach market saturation in a matter of decades. The use of robots has physical, functional, and behavioral implications for military organizations, and their increasing numbers will affect how militaries are organized and alter the existing organizational processes in the long term. Military organizations will benefit from a better understanding of the impact of robots and the resulting challenges. Taking the necessary steps to mitigate the challenges and facilitate the evolutionary transition for the military organizations will allow these organizations to reap the benefits of robots and to operate effectively in the changing macro environment.

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VI

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION . 1

A. THESIS OVERVIEW . 1

B. PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES . 2

C. DEFINING ROBOT . 4

D. CURRENT TRENDS . 6

E. EXAMPLES OF ROBOTS . 1 0

II. WHY ARE ROBOTS INEVITABLE? . 1 7

A. THE PULL FACTORS - STRENGTHS OF ROBOTS . 18

B. THE PUSH FACTORS - MACRO ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS . 20

1 . The Macro Environment . 20

2. Key Trends . 21

a. Shifting Poiiticai Landscape . 21

b. Aging Giobal Population . 22

c. Decreasing Giobal Conflict and Casualty

Tolerance . 23

d. Evolving Nature of War and Exposure of Human

Limitations . 24

e. Increasing Adoption of Robots in Industrial and

Domestic Domain . 25

f. Legal Debates and Concerns . 27

III. PROJECTING THE RISE OF ROBOTS AND THEIR EVOLUTION . 29

A. PROJECTING ADOPTION TIMEFRAME FOR ROBOTS . 29

1 . Technology Adoption S-Curve . 29

2. Adoption Timeframe for Robots . 31

B. EVOLVING ROBOTS . 33

1 . Free Robots (F-bots) . 33

2. Tethered Robots (T-bots) . 33

3. Evolution and Adoption of Robots . 34

IV. IMPACT OF ROBOTS . 37

A. NEAR-TERM IMPACT . 37

1. Operational Impact of RQ-11 Raven . 38

2. Maintenance and Support for RQ-1 1 Raven . 40

B. LONG-TERM IMPACT . 42

1 . A Model for Assessing the Long-Term Impact . 42

2. Organization-wlde Impact . 45

3. Evolutionary Journey of Military Organizations . 46

V. THE WAY AHEAD . 49

A. NEAR-TERM ACTIONS . 49

1 . Differentiating Humans from Robots . 49

2. Establishing Research Focus . 49

VII

3. Budgeting for Change . 50

4. Expansion of Appiication . 50

B. LONG-TERM FOCUS . 51

1 . Legitimizing the Robots . 51

2. Laying the Foundations . 51

3. Reaping the Benefits of Robots . 52

4. Pacing the Change . 52

C. CONCLUSiON . 52

LiST OF REFERENCES . 57

iNiTiAL DiSTRiBUTiON LiST . 63

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 . World UAV budget forecast (From Harrison, 2013) . 7

Figure 2. United States Department of Defense unmanned aircraft systems

(As of 1 July 2011) (From Office of the Under Secretary of Defense

[Acquisition Technology and Logistics], 2011) . 10

Figure 3. United States Department of Defense unmanned ground systems (From Office of the Under Secretary of Defense [Acquisition

Technology and Logistics], 2011) . 1 1

Figure 4. United States Department of Defense unmanned maritime systems (From Office of the Under Secretary of Defense [Acquisition

Technology and Logistics], 2011) . 12

Figure 5. Boston Dynamics’ BigDog (From Marcott, 2009) . 13

Figure 6. Google’s Driverless Car (From Markoff, 2010) . 13

Figure 7. Honda’s ASIMO humanoid robot (From Honda) . 14

Figure 8. Cyberdyne’s HAL-5 (From Cyberdyne) . 15

Figure 9. Diagram showing the pull and push factors that are moving military

organizations toward robotics technology . 18

Figure 1 0. Macro environment and trends for military organizations . 21

Figure 11. Global trends in armed conflict, 1946 - 2010 (From Marshall &

Cole, 2011) . 24

Figure 12. Annual supply of industrial robots to various regions (From

International Federation of Robotics, 2012) . 26

Figure 13. Unit sales figures and forecast for personnel/domestic service

robots (From International Federation of Robotics, 2012) . 26

Figure 1 4. Technology adoption S-curve (From Peyeti, 201 1 ) . 30

Figure 15. Analysis of historical data (Data from Moore & Simon, 1999; and

File, 2013) . 31

Figure 16. Projection for adoption and evolution of military robots . 35

Figure 17. Variation in adoption of F-bots in various military organizations

resulting from different emphasis on robots development and

investment . 36

Figure 18. Picture of RQ-1 1 Raven (From AeroVironment, n.d.) . 38

Figure 1 9. System of Systems (SoS) representation of a military organization. .. 43

Figure 20. Human-centric SoS model of a military organization . 44

Figure 21 . Evolving role of humans within military organizations . 46

Figure 22. Technology-driven evolution of military organizations represented

using HcSoS model . 48

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X

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 . 201 1 president’s budget for unmanned systems ($ Mil) (From Office

of the Under Secretary of Defense [Acquisition Technology and

Logistics], 2011) . 8

Table 2. Unmanned aerial systems Inventory projection for U.S. military (From Office of the Under Secretary of Defense [Acquisition

Technology and Logistics], 2012) . 9

Table 3. Examples of emergence . 39

Table 4. Possible changes due to maintenance and support requirements of

robots . 41

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XII

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

DNA

Deoxyribonucleic Acid

DoD

Department of Defense

F-bots

Free Robots

HAL

Hybrid Assistive Limb

HcSoS

Human-Centric Systems of Systems

IFR

International Federation of Robotics

IHL

International Humanitarian Law

IHRL

International Human Rights Law

OM

Operation and Maintenance

PROC

Procurement

R&D

Research and Development

RDTE

Research Development Test and Evaluation

Row

Rest of the World

RPV

Remotely Piloted Vehicles

SoS

Systems of Systems

T-bots

Tethered Robots

UAS

Unmanned Aerial Systems

UAV

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

UGV

Unmanned Ground Vehicle

UN

United Nations

USV

Unmanned Surface Vehicle

UUV

Unmanned Underwater Vehicle

XIII

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XIV

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This thesis explains why the extensive use of robots is inevitable for military organizations, projects the adoption timeframe for robots in military organizations, proposes how robots might evolve, assesses the impact of robots on military organizations and suggests the way forward for military organizations to facilitate the adoption of robots.

The inevitability of robots is fundamentally a result of the need to reduce manpower requirements in military organizations, while sustaining the capability needs of the organizations. The need to reduce manpower is driven by the trends of the macro environment for military organizations, which include the aging demographics and the reduced public tolerance for human casualties. The evolving operational environment that places increasing demands on soldiers and exposes the limitations of human body also supports the adoption of robots.

The adoption timeframe for robots in military organizations is projected to be 50 years. The projection is made by assessing the average adoption timeframe for earlier electronic technologies (i.e., radio, television, computer and Internet). While the precision of the projection is debatable, the projection suffices to provide military organizations with an appreciation of the urgency for attention. As a follow-on for the thesis, further research may be performed to provide a better estimate of the adoption timeframe of robots, tailored to various military organizations.

Robots are not limited to their current forms and will evolve as robotic technologies advance and the potential of robots is uncovered. Looking at the macro environmental trends, this thesis proposes the evolutionary goal for the two general types of robots, T-bots and F-bots. While F-bots would be more effective at replacing humans, development of T-bots will predominate while semantic technologies, necessary for F-bots, are being developed and in the

XV

event that the macro environment favors human control over the actions of robots.

As robots evolve and their scale and scope of application increase, the impact on military organizations will change. The long term impact of robots at the organizational level is a streamlining of the human resources within the organization resulting in the reduction in manpower requirements and change in organizational systems and their associated capabilities. The long term impact is driven fundamentally by the changing interactions between systems within military organizations, as a result of the introduction of robots. The changing interactions would manifest as physical, functional and/or behavioral changes, and these changes are observable from the assessment of the impact of currently deployed robots.

Understanding the impact and inevitability of robots, it is in the interest of military organizations to take necessary steps to facilitate the rise of robots and gain from the adoption of robots. In the near term, the priority for military organizations is to establish a clear distinction between humans and robots. This entails a clear segregation of roles that will be used to guide the development of robots. Investment in the research of semantic technologies and technologies that enhance robot human interactions should be made early to spur the development of robots and shorten their adoption timeframe.

Material and manpower resources should be provided for in the near term to support an expected rise in manpower and material resources for the operation and maintenance of robots. In the near term, the application of robots should also be diversified to provide multiple development channels and sustain the overall development of robots. Benefits of robots may also be realized earlier though the diversification of their application.

A longer term focus for military organizations is to legitimize the use of robots both internationally and domestically. The foundations supporting the rise

XVI

of robots should be reinforced to sustain the increasing use of robots. These foundations include the communication network and the pool of specialists.

Consolidation and reorganization at the organizational level Is the eventual means of harvesting the benefits of robots. This has to be recognized down the road and realized in spite of potential resistance.

Social acceptance is also important for the successful integration of robots into military organizations. Military organizations should therefore pace the introduction of robots according to that concern in the public domain.

In conclusion, macro environmental trends suggest that the use of robots is the way forward for military organizations. It is projected that the adoption rate of robots will pick up from this point forward and will reach saturation in a matter of decades. The use of robots has physical, functional and behavioral implications on military organizations, and their increasing numbers will affect how militaries are organized and alter the existing organizational processes In the long term. Military organizations will benefit from a better understanding of the impact of robots and the resulting challenges. Taking the necessary steps to mitigate the challenges and facilitate the evolutionary transition for the military organizations will allow organizations to reap the benefits of robots early and allow the organization to operate effectively In the changing macro environment.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author would like to thank Prof. Gary O. Langford for generously sharing his vast experience and knowledge during the discussion sessions and his guidance throughout the thesis writing process. Prof Langford constantly challenged the author to look at issues from different perspectives and provided significant insights that helped shaped this thesis.

As co-advisor, Prof. Douglas H. Nelson’s guidance and feedback on the thesis is greatly appreciated by the author.

The author would also like to thank editor Margaret Beresik for helping me clarify and polish the text in the thesis drafts, and ensuring that the thesis is formatted according to the set requirements.

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I. INTRODUCTION

A. THESIS OVERVIEW

There are reasons to believe that robots will have an increasingly dominant role in the military. The surge in the number of drones and mine clearing robots depioyed in Afghanistan and Iraq over the past decade (Singer, Robots at War: The New Battlefield, 2009b) is one of the tell-taie signs. Intuitively, it is not difficuit to accept the increasing trend of miiitary organizations deploying robots. This trend could in part be due to popuiar sci-fi movies iike Transformers and Iron Man that brought out the infinite potential of robots and made robots seem like the way forward. Not limited in form the way humans are limited by our physical body, robots can be designed with extraordinary power and sensor capabiiity. The essentiai attraction to robots lies in their ability to augment humans’ decision making and support humans in tasks that human bodies are incapable of performing.

Accepting the rise of robots has impiications for military organizations. As robots evolve and show increasing appiicabiiity, the rising number and extent of their depioyment across military organizations, wiii affect these organizations, physically, functionally and behaviorally, changing their organizational structure and processes.

This thesis identifies the reasons for the inevitability of robot dominance in miiitary organizations, projects the adoption timeframe for robots, proposes how robots will evolve, assesses the impact of robots on military organizations and suggests the way forward for military organizations to faciiitate the adoption of robots.

The thesis is broken up into five chapters. Chapter I provides an overview of the thesis and addresses the motivation and objectives of the thesis. This chapter aiso establishes the definition of robot that is used in this thesis, highlights current investment and development trends for robots and provides

1

examples of existing robots. Chapter II identifies the reasons for the inevitable rise of robots in military organizations by examining the value of robots to military organizations and the macro environmental trends. Chapter III explores the adoption rate of robots in military organizations and projects the timeframe for widespread adoption of robots within military organizations. Chapter III will identify two general types of robots and discuss their evolutionary goal. Chapter IV identifies the near term impact of the introduction of robots, drawing examples from currently deployed robots and discusses the long-term implications of the increasing adoption of robots. Chapter V proposes the way ahead for military organizations to facilitate the rise of robots and concludes this thesis.

B. PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES

Disruptive technologies are scientific discoveries that break through the usual product/technology capabilities and provide a basis for a new competitive paradigm. (Kassicieh, Walsh, Al-Romig, McWhorter, & Williams, 2000)

By the definition quoted above, robotics technology can represent a disruptive technology. Robotics technology provides man-made machines, called robots, with the disruptive capability to displace humans from work that humans have traditionally thought not possible by machines. Robots provide organizations with the opportunity to explore solutions for the organizations’ needs free from the constraints imposed by the employment of humans. For manpower intensive military organizations, the opportunity presented by robots can potentially be translated to improved operational performance, added capabilities and lower manpower costs.

While the potential benefits of robots to military organizations are clear and attractive, the potential pitfalls should not be overlooked. Failure to recognize the long-term extensive impact of robots early can have detrimental effects on military organizations. These negative effects can range from the inefficient use of resources, evident from the uncoordinated development of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) by various services of the U.S. military (Office of the Under

2

Secretary of Defense (Acquisition Technology and Logistics), 2011), to the potential rejection of robots by humans within the organization as the livelihood of humans is threatened by robots.

Despite the potentially serious and disruptive consequences of the long term impact of robots on military organizations, not much has been written about these implications. Most researchers have chosen instead to discuss the operational benefits (Shanker, 2013) of specific robots or to focus narrowly on the legality and morality issues surrounding the use of robots in specific context (Volker, 2012). There are many possible explanations for the current lack of discussion on the long -term Impact of robots. Possible explanations Include the failure to recognize the true potential of robots and their inevitable pervasive application, as well as the false belief that robots are things of a distant future, justifying a delay in discussion. It is not in the interest of this thesis to discuss the reasons for the lack of focus on the long-term Impact of robots. The purpose of this thesis is instead to create an awareness of the impact of robots and spur actions to better position military organizations to harness the potential of the disruptive innovation of robots. More specifically, this thesis is concerned with highlighting the impacts that have to be managed through coordinated action at the higher leadership level of military organizations.

With this purpose in mind, this thesis ultimately seeks to spur military organizations to consider the key question of: “What can military organizations do to prepare for the increasingly dominant role of robots?” Given the differing contexts of various military organizations, it is beyond the scope of this thesis to provide a comprehensive answer to this question. This thesis will Instead propose general guidelines for military organizations. These guidelines will be shaped by the answers to the following relevant questions:

Why is the rise of robots in military organizations inevitable?

How long will it be before robots become ubiquitous in military organizations?

How will robots evolve and what drives their evolution?

3

How do robots affect military organizations, and what are the consequences of their impact?

The answers to these questions will be discussed in the subsequent chapters of this thesis.

C. DEFINING ROBOT

So what exactly are robots? This is not a trivial question, given its numerous definitions and the lack of a universally accepted answer. Yet, it is an important question whose answer would distinguish robots from any other machine that has been around since the industrial revolution and provide the first hint at their significance to the military or even the world at large. This section reviews some of the existing definitions of robots and establishes the definition that is used in communicating this thesis.

Some dictionary definitions of robots are listed below:

A machine that looks like a human being and performs various complex acts (as walking or talking) of a human being; also : a similar but fictional machine whose lack of capacity for human emotions is often emphasized (Merriam-Webster).

A machine controlled by a computer that is used to perform jobs automatically (Cambridge Dictionaries).

A machine capable of carrying out a complex series of actions automatically, especially one programmable by a computer. (Oxford Dictionaries)

The Merriam-Webster definition represents a stereotypical robot that hints at the presence of some form of intelligence (to perform complex acts) but restricts robots to human form. The Cambridge and Oxford definitions emphasize only the presence of automation and lack description of the physical form.

These dictionary definitions represent various layman impressions of what robots are and either limits what robots can be or lack the specificity needed to distinguish robots from automated machines. A more specific, yet encompassing definition is that described by Singer in his book, Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 2f^ Century.

4

Robots are machines that are built upon what research calls the “sense-think-act” paradigm. That is, they are man-made devices with three key components: “sensors” that detect the environment and monitor changes in it, “processors” or “artificial intelligence” that decide how to respond, and “effectors” that act upon the environment in a manner that reflects decision, creating some sort of change in the world around a robot. When these three parts act together, a robot gains the functionality of an artificial organism. (Singer, 2009c)

From a systems engineering perspective (i.e., functional perspective), this statement is a good definition as it captures the key functions (i.e., detect and monitor environmental changes, make decisions and act upon the environment based on decisions) and prescribes the key components (i.e., sensors, processors and effectors) of a robot, without limiting the robot’s physical form. While this more comprehensive definition does suggest the presence of automation in robots, the definition does not require a machine that is able to accomplish a job autonomously to be considered a robot. The implication of this distinction is that a machine that requires some form of human control to accomplish a job may still be considered a robot as long as the machine possesses the key robot functions.

A problem with this more comprehensive definition is that a machine, like a lamp that Is able to sense the light Intensity of the surrounding and decides to turn on or off the light, or a remote control car that is equipped with a touch sensor in its bumper and is able to change the direction of movement on contact with an obstacle, may be considered a robot. From a layman’s perspective, these differences may be difficult to reconcile. This problem with Singer’s definition of robot arises from the lack of specification (considering the level of complexity) required in the decisions that robots make. To improve on Singer’s definition of robots, this thesis proposes that robots should be capable of making decisions dynamically, and this would manifest as different actions, depending on the context of use.

5

With the specific definition of robot, a distinction still needs to be made between a military and non-military robot. This thesis focuses on military robots, which would entail robots employed by the military to fulfill a combat, combat support,! or combat service support role. 2 Military robots can be broadly categorized based on the domain in which they are deployed: Air, Ground, and Maritime. Aerial military robots include, but are not limited to, all Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), which are also referred to as Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs) or drones. Ground military robots include, but are not limited to. Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) and wearable robots. Maritime military robots include, but are not limited to. Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) and Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs). Unless otherwise stated, the use of the word ‘robots’ will generally refer to military robots in this thesis.

D. CURRENT TRENDS

Having established the definition of robots, this section will highlight some of the current development and investment trends on military robots and provide an appreciation of the current scale of military robots employed.

Figure 1 compares the budget forecast for UAV procurement and research and development (R&D), between U.S. and the rest of the world (RoW) (Harrison, 2013). The forecast suggests that U.S. interest in UAVs will be sustained for the next decade, and the interest in UAVs among other countries will increase in the coming decade.

1 Defined as the fire support and operational assistance provided to combat elements, by the Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms (Joint Education and Doctrine Division, 2010)

2 Defined by the Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms (Joint Education and Doctrine Division, 2010) as the essential capabilities, functions, activities, and tasks necessary to sustain all elements of operating forces in theater at all levels of war. Within the national and theater logistic systems, it includes but is not limited to that support rendered by service forces in ensuring the aspects of supply, maintenance, transportation, health services, and other services required by aviation and ground combat troops to permit those units to accomplish their missions in combat. Combat service support encompasses those activities at all levels of war that produce sustainment to all operating forces on the battlefield.

6

R&D and Procurement

12

10

CO

w

</>

c

o

4

2

8

6

0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

US Procurement US R&D RoW Procurement RoW R&D

RoW=Rest of World; speculative UCAV procurement not included

Source: Teal Group, World UAV Systems 20/2: Market Profile and Forecast.

Figure 1 . World UAV budget forecast (From Flarrison, 2013).

While research and employment of military robots in the form UAVs, began as early as 1917 (Gertler, 2012), the tipping point for the widespread use of miiitary robots by the United States came with the Iraq war. According to Singer (2009b), “When U.S. forces went into Iraq in 2003, they had zero robotic units on the ground. By the end of 2004, the number was up to 150. By the end of 2005 it was 2,400, and it more than doubied the next year. By the end of 2008, it was projected to reach as high as 12,000.” Singer aiso noted that the U.S. miiitary went into Iraq with just a handfui of drones or UAVs, but had over 7,000 of them by 2009 (Singer, 2009a). Robots had demonstrated their utility in combat operations.

7

Table 1 . 201 1 president’s budget for unmanned systems ($ Mil) (From Office

of the Under Secretary of Defense [Acquisition Technology and

Logistics], 2011).

Unmanned Funding ($ Mil) |

Fiscal Year Defense Prog

FYll

FYll

FY13

FY14

FY15

Total

RDTE

1,106.72

1,255.29

1,539.58

1,440.57

1,296.25

6,638.40

Air

PROC

3,351.90

2,936.93

3,040.41

3,362.95

3,389.03

16,081.21

OM

1,596.74

1,631.38

1,469.49

1,577.65

1,825.45

8,100.71

Domain Total

6,055.36

5,823.59

6,049.48

6,381.17

6,510.72

30,820.32

Fiscal Year Defense Prog

FYll

FYll

FY13

FY14

FY15

Total

RDTE

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Ground

PROC

20.03

26.25

24.07

7.66

0.00

78.01

OM

207.06

233.58

237.50

241.50

245.96

1,165.60

Domain Total

227.09

259.83

261.57

249.16

245.96

1,243.61

Fiscal Year Defense Prog

FYll

FYll

FY13

FY14

FY15

Total

RDTE

29.69

62.92

65.72

48.60

47.26

254.19

Maritime

PROC

11.93

45.45

84.85

108.35

114.33

364.90

OM

5.79

4.71

3.76

4.00

4.03

22.28

Domain Total

47.41

113.08

154.32

160.94

165.62

641.37

Fiscal Year Defense Prog

FYll

FYll

FY13

FY14

FY15

Total

RDTE

1,136.41

1,318.21

1,605.29

1,489.16

1,343.52

6,892.59

All Unmanned

PROC

3,3S3.86

3,008.63

3,149.32

3,478.96

3,503.36

16,524.12

OM

1,809.59

1,869.67

1,710.75

1,823.15

2,075.44

9,288.59

Domain Total

6,329.86

6,196.50

6,465.36

6,791.27

6,922.31

32,705.30

Currently, the focus of unmanned systems development in the U.S. military is in the air domain, as suggested by the budget allocation shown in Table 1. The budget allocation is broken down into research development test and evaluation (RDTE), procurement (PROG) and operation and maintenance (OM) for the various deployment domains.

8

Table 2. Unmanned aerial systems inventory projection for U.S. military (From Office of the Under Secretary of Defense [Acquisition Technology

and Logistics], 2012).

Svstem Desianation/Name I

Current FY 12

FY13

FY 14

FY15

FY16

FY17

MQ-1B

Predator

163

Air Force 152

141

130

121

115

110

MQ-9A

Reaper

70

96

135

167

199

229

256

RQ-4B

Global Hawk

23

23

15

15

15

15

15

RQ-11B

Raven

6394

Army

6294

6528

6717

6921

7074

7074

RQ-7B

Shadow

408

408

408

408

408

408

408

MQ-5B

Hunter

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

MQ-1C

Gray Eagle

19

45

74

110

138

152

152

RQ-4A

Global Hawk

5

Navy

5

0

0

0

0

0

MQ-4C

BAMS

0

0

2

2

5

9

13

MQ-8B

FirescoutA/TUAV

5

9

14

18

25

32

37

RQ-21A

STUAS

0

1

2

3

4

4

4

Scan Eagle

122

122

122

122

122

122

122

X-47B

UCAS-D

2

2

2

2

0

0

0

UCLASS

0

0

0

0

2

2

4

RQ-7B

Shadow

52

Marine Corps

52 52

52

52

52

52

RQ-21A

STUAS

8

8

8

23

48

73

100

Table 2 captures the inventory projection for unmanned aerial systems, 3 UAS, in the U.S. military, and it shows an increasing trend for the next several years. While the rate of increase would subside in the coming years, continued investment in development of unmanned aerial systems can be expected, to improve earlier generations of UAS.

3 Unmanned aircraft are commonly called unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and when combined with ground control stations and data links, form UAS, or unmanned aerial systems (Gertler, 2012).

9

E. EXAMPLES OF ROBOTS

This section serves to provide readers with an appreciation of the diversity of existing robots and includes some examples of non-military robots with potential military applications.

Figures 2, 3 and 4 provide an overview of the various unmanned systems that are deployed by the U.S. military. The figures highlight the diversity of unmanned systems as well as their capabilities.

DoO Unmanned Aircraft Syste

ms (AsaflJULYTOllJ

GefieralGrouFMngs

Depiction

Narne

(Vefucres/GCSJ

Capability/Missiofi

Command Level

■U3AF/USN RQr4AQIotH] Hawfe/BAMS-D Bloci 10

-9/3

■l5R/IVrDA(U5N)

■JFACCyAt>C-Th€Bter\

■□SAf Ra-4B Global Hawk Block 20^30

■20/6

■ISR

■J FAC4VAOC-Tne ate r

Group 5

'LJSAF Ra-4B Global Hawk Block 40

■5/2

■ISR/BMC

■JFACC/AOC-Tnestsr

>1320 Ihs

>FL1E0

_ . /

■USAF MQr3 Reapef

■73/85"

■ISR/RSTA/EW/

■JFACC/AOC- support

■‘Mcr-j/lwq-o

37™sc3

STRIKE/FP

Corp6.j Bri§, SQF 1

-USAf WVQ-IB Predator

■165/S5-

■JSR/RSTA/STRIKE/FP

■J FACC/AOC-Sup pa rt

Carps, Dlv, Btig

Group 4

A.

-USAIVtOrlWarrior/MOrlC Gray Eagle

■31/11

■tMa-l€OnlyC3/LG)

■MA

-USN UCA5- CVN Demo

■2/0

■DemonsUatlon Only

■NA

* >1320 lbs

■USN MQ-8B Fire Sctiut VTUAV

■14/6

■ISR/RSTA/ASW/

■Fleet/Ship

* <FL1E0

ASUW/MIW/OMCM/

EOD/FP

■SOCOM/DARPA/USA/USMC AIHJT Hummmgbfrd

■8/3

■Demonstration Only

■NA

Group 3

■USA Ma-5 Hunter

■45/21

•ISR/RSTA/BDA

■Corps, Div, Brig

- <1320 lbs

<FUBO

■USA/USIVK:/SOCOM RQ-T shadow

-368/265

ilBR/RSTA/BDA

■Briisde Combat

Team

<2S0 knots

X

■USN/USAr-FCSTUAS

-0/0

■Demonstration

■Small